AVIS-IBIS

Birds of Indian Subcontinent

Relation between Weather and Survival of Wild Turkey Nests

Publication Type:Journal Article
Year of Publication:1998
Authors:Roberts, SD, Porter, WF
Journal:The Journal of Wildlife Management
Volume:62
Issue:4
Date Published:1998
ISBN Number:0022541X
Keywords:Meleagris, Meleagris gallopavo, Phasianidae
Abstract:Recruitment can be highly variable within eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) populations and appears primarily associated with annual fluctuations in nest survival. Identification of the causes of variation in nest survival could lead to the development of new indices to productivity. We used logistic regression to examine relations between 14 weather variables and daily survival of wild turkey nests (n = 3,332 nest-days from 206 nests) in southcentral New York from 1 May to 9 June 1990-93. Daily nest survival was associated negatively with cumulative departure from normal seasonal rainfall (P = 0.003) and daily precipitation (P = 0.07) and was associated positively with heating degree-days (P = 0.01). Although estimates of daily nest survival predicted by the logistic regression model were not correlated highly with observed estimates (r = 0.31), a strong positive correlation was observed between predicted and observed probabilities of 20-day nest survival (r = 0.93).
URL:http://www.jstor.org/stable/3802015
Short Title:The Journal of Wildlife Management
Taxonomic name: 
Scratchpads developed and conceived by (alphabetical): Ed Baker, Katherine Bouton Alice Heaton Dimitris Koureas, Laurence Livermore, Dave Roberts, Simon Rycroft, Ben Scott, Vince Smith