Birds of Indian Subcontinent

A pattern-oriented modelling approach to simulating populations of grey partridge

Publication Type:Journal Article
Year of Publication:2010
Authors:Topping, CJohn, H, Oddersk, Aebischer, NJ
Journal:Ecological Modelling
Date Published:2010
ISBN Number:0304-3800
Keywords:agent-based model, Francolinus, Francolinus pondicerianus, ODdox, Parameter fitting, Perdix perdix, Phasianidae, sensitivity analysis
Abstract:A number of wildlife species including the grey partridge (Perdix perdix) have shown dramatic post-war population declines. Multiple drivers have been proposed as reasons for the declines, for example agrochemical use and intensification of agricultural practices, climate, predation, and changes in landscape structure. These drivers may interact in non-linear ways and are inherently spatio-temporal in nature. Therefore models used to investigate mechanisms should be spatio-temporal, of proper scale, and have a high degree of biological realism. Here we describe the development and testing of an agent-based model (ABM) of grey partridge using a well documented pre-decline historical data set in conjunction with a pattern-oriented modelling (POM) approach. Model development was an iterative process of defining performance criteria, testing model behaviour, and reformulating as necessary to emulate system properties whilst ensuring that internal mechanisms were biologically realistic. The model was documented using ODdox, a new protocol for describing large agent-based models. Parameter fitting in the model was achieved to within
Short Title:Ecological Modelling
Scratchpads developed and conceived by (alphabetical): Ed Baker, Katherine Bouton Alice Heaton Dimitris Koureas, Laurence Livermore, Dave Roberts, Simon Rycroft, Ben Scott, Vince Smith